Start with the realization that since Obama the candidate made a point of arguing (1) that he was not against all wars and (2) that the previous administration was fighting the wrong war. Then, and this may have been a mistake, however politically effective, he focused attention on Afghanistan as the place where the right war should be fought. So now he is stuck with a war in a geopolitically important place where, historically, wars have been very hard for outsiders to win. It might be wise to simply walk away, but given everything else he has to deal with, the economy, energy, education, healthcare, a new Supreme Court Justice, bailing and taking the hit for turning out to be just another wimpy liberal is not on. And Pakistan really does have nuclear weapons and really is very close to being a failed state.

So what does this imply? I see Obama as confronting a situation much like the one that Lincoln faced in the early years of the Civil War. I expect to see several generals tried out and then replaced. I expect to see all sorts of experimentation. Best case scenario, some nation-building scheme works out; but that seems unlikely. I expect to see lots of failure and lots of grief until Obama finds his Grant and Sherman, when things will get really bloody.

I hate this possible outcome and it could, of course, be nothing more than dark fantasy. But even in the best case, the notion that HTS is a burning issue for Obama strikes me as more than a little far-fetched.

I’m not saying Obama wants to but can’t; I’m saying that there’s little reason to suppose that he wouldn’t buy into the promise of counterinsurgency as easily as anyone else, especially when it’s in his political interest to do so.